Former President Donald Trump’s recent criminal conviction has paradoxically boosted his campaign finances, raising concerns about its impact on the upcoming presidential election. Here’s the full story.
Historic Conviction
Donald Trump is the first former US president to be convicted of a crime, and with his sentencing scheduled for July 11, he could potentially face prison time and hefty fines.
Unprecedented Fallout
The political fallout from his conviction is ongoing, with his campaign coming under intense scrutiny in the days following the jury’s decision.
No Historical Parallel
As no former US President has ever faced conviction, the outcome of what could be a watershed moment for US politics is unknown and unprecedented.
Nothing Comes Close
The situation is so unique that Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University, told the BBC, “We often look to history to find some kind of hint of what’s going to happen. But there is nothing in the record that comes even close to this.”
Neck and Neck
Despite the conviction, Trump has secured the Republican presidential nomination and is polling neck and neck with President Joe Biden in crucial swing states.
Potential Shift in Support
However, some polls indicated that this conviction might alter voter support, though not by a great deal.
Strong Republican Support
Despite these poll results and Trump’s conviction for paying hush money to adult actress Stormy Daniels, leading Republicans have shown strong support for Trump, with many calling the trial a politically motivated stitch-up.
“Shameful Day”
House Speaker Mike Johnson was indicative of most Republicans when he described the trial’s outcome as a “shameful day in American history.”
Fundraising Windfall
Though many Democrats might take solace that the American justice system seems to have worked as intended, even against someone as powerful as Trump, his conviction has paradoxically invigorated his fundraising efforts, with a significant influx of support from ultra-wealthy Republican donors.
Immediate Donations Surge
Within 24 hours of the verdict, Trump’s campaign raised nearly $53 million. This surge in donations highlights substantial backing from billionaire supporters, who will be mindful of Trump’s tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy when he was in office.
May Fundraising Milestone
Trump’s conviction has spurred immediate donations and led to an impressive fundraising haul.
In May alone, Trump and the Republican National Committee (RNC) raised $141 million, with $53 million contributed within a day of the verdict.
Outrage Drives Support
This surge is a marked improvement over previous months, reflecting heightened support driven by a sense of outrage among Trump’s base, who increasingly view him as a man above the law.
Trailing Biden
One small glimmer of hope for Democrats is that, despite the substantial fundraising gains, Trump’s campaign still trails behind Biden and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in overall contributions.
Narrowing the Gap
By the end of April, Biden’s campaign had amassed $192 million compared to Trump’s $93.1 million. However, the recent surge has narrowed this gap significantly, with Trump out-raising Biden for the first time in April.
Not Determinative
Campaign finance expert Justin Buchler from Case Western Reserve University stated, “Money is not going to be determinative. The primary role of money in a campaign is to increase name recognition. Everybody already knows who Donald Trump and Joe Biden are.”
Mobilising Voters
The main impact of fundraising of this magnitude lies in mobilising voter support. Voters are more likely to knock on doors for candidates, donate money, and attempt to rally support for their chosen party.
Bad News Boosts Funds
This is not the first time that bad news for Trump has led to significant increases in his campaign funds.
Best Fundraising Days
His single best fundraising days include his New York City arraignment on April 4 and the release of his mugshot in Georgia on August 25.
Galvanising Supporters
With his supporters increasingly confident that Trump is their guy, come what may, it seems that legal challenges only galvanise his supporters, turning what to any other politician would be a severe liability into a financial windfall.
Voters Decide
Ultimately, voters in November will determine the true impact of Trump’s conviction. The conviction may be seen as a pivotal factor if Trump is defeated.
Footnote in Victory
Conversely, a victory would render the conviction a mere footnote in his tumultuous political career. Jeffrey Engel put it best when he stated, “History is written by the winners.”
Paradoxical Strengths
Trump’s ability to shrug off what would be mortal blows to any other political figure has created a paradoxical situation in which his legal troubles have actually turned out to be strengths, bolstering his campaign and energising his base.
Election Uncertainty
With the American election drawing ever closer, it remains to be seen if even a criminal conviction will not be enough to slow Trump on his seemingly inevitable path to the election campaign.
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Featured Image Credit: Shutterstock / Alexandros Michailidis.