Following a disastrous set of local election results, the Tories are urged to move to the Right. Having lost a significant amount of vote share on issues such as immigration and tax rates, some Tories are urging a re-think to strategy.
Reform Eating into Vote Share
The biggest beneficiary of the Tory deserters is Reform. The re-branded Brexit party has made a play to appeal to the Tory right, and it has worked.
Reform Taking Huge Chunks of Tory Vote
In the latest polling results from YouGov, Reform is expected to win 15% of the votes (up from 1%), and the Tories are expected to win 18% of the vote (down from 53%).
Reform Split Tory Vote in Half
The rise of Reform has come on the back of the Tories enforcing a high tax burden on the population, poor handling of immigration, and Brexit not going as the far Right had hoped.
Brexit Issue Bound the Right Together
The polling suggests that the various elements of voters on the Right centre were bound by leaving the European Union. Once that happened, divisions over what Brexit should look like started to appear.
Small State, Low Tax Dream Shattered
The state shrank during the austerity years when Cameron and Osborne cut public spending. Since Brexit, though, a hit to GDP followed by the pandemic forced government borrowing to rise.
Extensive Borrowing Means Large Repayments
The increase in government borrowing means the tax burden is high, which contradicts the very essence of what the Right believes in. We have a Conservative government in name only, which is driving voters away.
Public Showing Distrust in Tories
While polls can give us an indication of our feelings towards the government, elections tell us the absolute truth. Having lost 474 councillors in the latest local elections, the message is loud and clear.
Sunak Still Believes
In an interview with the Sunday Times, Rishi Sunak said that he is “determined that we will come together as a party.” Whether or not this is a pre-election bluster, we’re not sure. The truth is, the knives are out for him.
Suella Braverman Urging Sunak to Change Tack
The former Home Secretary said, “I love my country, I care about my party and I want us to win, and I am urging the prime minister to change course, to – with humility – reflect on what voters are telling us, and change the plan and the way that he is communicating and leading us.”
More Support for a Step to the Right
Tory MP Robert Buckland said, “The Conservative party wins elections, not by being soft and mushy but by reflecting the views of the British public, by being in alliance with them. The coalition that we need is with the British people. We’ve been the party of the nation for generations. I believe we can get back to that, but we need to focus on what people are talking about.”
Not All Tories in Favour Though
Former West Midlands mayor Andy Street said: “The thing everyone should take from Birmingham and the West Midlands is this brand of moderative, inclusive, tolerant conservatism, that gets on and delivered, has come within an ace of beating the Labour party in what they considered to be their back yard – that’s the message from here tonight.”
The Reality Is the Right Is Still Not Winning.
Even if the Reform and Conservative votes were pooled, it’s still not enough to catch Labour. This could be because, after 14 years of no tangible progress, the public is fed up with leaning to the Right.
Even When the Tories Are Right, They’re Still Wrong
The Rwanda policy is a classic example. It is supported by the right-wing, but in an April 2024 YouGov poll, 41% of people supported the policy, and 41% opposed it. The other 18% didn’t know. This means that even a step to the Right isn’t popular with voters either.
Sunak Isn’t the Only Problem
As the leader, it’s easy to assume the problem is Sunak. The reality is it’s a Conservative Party problem. The damage is a ‘death by a thousand cuts’: Partygate, the economy, the leadership merry-go-round, immigration, PPE, austerity, and high taxes. It’s not that Sunak is unpopular; the entire party is unpopular.
Tories No Less Popular Under Sunak Than Others
According to YouGov, public satisfaction with the government was at its lowest before he took office. He inherited an unliked government, and he has done nothing to improve it.
Sunak Stuck With Nowhere to Go
If he steps to the Right, he alienates the moderates, and it’s probably too late to win back defected Reform voters. If he steps to the centre, he upsets the party’s Right.
It Doesn’t Matter Who Leads From Here
Whilst the noise from the back benches has quietened, there’s a sense amongst some Tories that it doesn’t matter who leads from here; their time is up. They had 14 years at it and left the country in a worse state than they found it.
What to Expect Now
The question isn’t ‘if’ the Tories lose the election; it’s more a case of ‘by how much’ they’ll lose it. Either way, Sunak will be out. He’s not popular enough to survive a coup, and leading the Tories to an election whitewash won’t give him a record worth defending.
In-Fighting Did for the Tories in the End
The Conservatives have engineered their own downfall. The various factions in the party have destabilised them like no other time in history. Sunak will probably be given the blame, but history will show it was the Right of the party that caused the chaos.
The post Tory Victory Path: Experts Urge Hard Right Shift for Electoral Success first appeared on Swift Feed.
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