The latest YouGov MRP projection shows that Labour could be on course to record its best-ever election performance. If the figures are correct, it’ll be the second-largest victory in British political history. Read on for full details.
1997 Was Seen as a High Water Mark
It was seen as a remarkable result when Blair’s Labour swept to power in 1997. A country tired of almost 18 years of Tory rule voted in a Labour government offering change.
Landslide Figures Highlighted Sense of Dissatisfaction
The Labour majority was 179 at the time, which gives a sense of how desperate the electorate was for change. The question now is whether the country is even more frustrated.
MRP Predicting Even Greater Landslide
The YouGov MRP has a history of projecting the results of elections with a reasonable degree of accuracy. It’s showing that Labour could win 422 seats in the upcoming election.
Huge Majority – Bigger Than 1997
If the model is correct, Labour would win a 194-seat majority, the second largest in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s figure of 210 in 1924.
Tories Worst Performance Since 1906
If the model is correct, the Tories would win 140 seats. That would represent their worst performance at a general election since 1906.
Complete Upheaval of Political Landscape
It’s not just the Tories who would suffer. According to the projections, the SNP would lose around half of its seats and, with it, its status as the third party in the UK.
Relative Wipeout in Large Areas
The model shows that the Tories would be wiped out in London, the North East, the North West, and Wales. The red wall would be rebuilt, and the blue wall would be knocked down.
Lib Dems and Greens on the Rise
Projections suggest the Lib Dems could win 48 seats, their best total since 2010. It would put them back as a significant presence in Westminster, having spent almost a decade with a minimal presence.
The Green Party Growing
There’s a suggestion that the Greens will win a second seat, their best-ever result. They already hold Brighton Pavillion, and Bristol Central could turn Green.
Greens Coming Second
While they’re projected to win only two seats, modelling shows that the Greens could come second in nearly 50 others. Perhaps they’re seen as an alternative vote to disenfranchised voters of the major parties.
Lib Dem Strategy Working
The Lib Dems have targeted many of the Tory seats across the south and west of the country, and there’s a strong suggestion they may win them. Their concentrated work in several key seats appears to be paying off.
Moderate Tory Vote Switching to Lib Dems
As previous bedfellows under the coalition, many moderate Tories see the Lib Dems as their ‘next best’ option. Whilst they won’t vote Labour and don’t want to vote for this version of the Tories, the Lib Dems are next in line.
Reform Big Winners
Arguably, the biggest winner of the Tory downfall is Reform UK. Having risen from the ashes of UKIP, Reform UK has swept up the frustrated right wing of Tory voters.
Vote Share Increased
Their polling has been a steady upward trend since their inception, following the disastrous record of the Tories on Brexit and immigration – two critical issues for the right wing.
Reform UK Performance: A Guessing Game
It isn’t easy to project for Reform UK because Nigel Farage has now announced an intention to stand so that it could swing things his way. They may win a seat or two, but probably not enough to trouble the major parties.
Resurgent Labour to Win Across the Country
Labour will sweep to power, becoming the largest party in England’s North and North West, Greater London, Wales and Scotland. It’ll be the first time since 2007 they’ve won north of the border.
Most Significant Change in the South
Labour will also be the biggest party in the South of England – something it didn’t even achieve in the halcyon days of Tony Blair’s 97 victory.
Labour to Win in London
Models suggest that Labour will win 65 of the 75 London seats, with the Tories winning only 4 and the Lib Dems winning 6.
Models Give Strong Clues
Though they aren’t always 100% accurate, the MRP projections are the best according to historical data. With campaigning not going well for the Tories, don’t be surprised if we see a Labour majority greater than 1997.
The post YouGov Poll Shows Unexpected Trends in Election Race first appeared on Swift Feed.
Featured Image Credit: Shutterstock / 1000 Words.