Despite the big talk from Reform UK in the run-up to the election, the British public gave Nigel Farage a considerable message – we don’t like his politics or party.
Reform UK Humbled
Farage was making claims about taking over the Tory party and becoming their leader ahead of the election.
Predictions of Opposition
As confidence grew, he even talked about Reform UK being the official opposition party in the UK.
Polls Missed
While many polls are accurate, they all called the Reform UK vote share wrong. At one point, several polls had them win 13 seats.
Reality Bites
Reform UK took only four seats when the votes were counted – significantly less than predicted.
Minor Party Status
Reform UK might try to spin this, but they’ve won only four seats – the same as Plaid Cymru and the Green party. The Farage effect didn’t matter.
Distribution an Issue
Despite a large share of the popular vote, more was needed to move the national agenda. It shows Reform UK voters are both too concentrated and too dilute.
Seats Won Well
Where they won seats, they did so generally comfortably. The problem is the rest of their millions of votes are spread thinly, making them unable to force change.
Lowers Impact in Parliament
With only four seats, the Tories can sigh relief that the Reform UK threat to their existence is smaller than anticipated. They’re put back in their box.
Lessons Need to be Learned
Reform UK was polling well until the sensibilities and opinions of many candidates became public knowledge.
Racism, Sexist and Xenophobia
In the build-up to the election, several stories about Reform UK candidates’ opinions on social media and in person emerged.
Public Opinion Shifted
As the stories reached the press, there was a noticeable difference in the polling scores and the social media interactions.
Farage Called to Account
When the unavoidable truth about the views of several Reform UK candidates was exposed, Farage blamed a company they’d paid to find candidates. It didn’t help.
Confidence in Farage Slipped After Manifesto
A further slip occurred after the publication of their manifesto. The numbers, to put it mildly, were a fantasy. Savings and savings figures were pulled apart within minutes by analysts, and Farage had no answers when grilled.
Reform UK Votes a Protest
Much like the ‘red wall’ lent their vote to the Tories in 2019, many disillusioned Tory voters have lent their vote to Reform UK this time around.
Campaigning Different to Complaining
Farage has learned that running as both a party leader and a candidate shines an even bigger spotlight on you. He’s been found wanting when it matters, which has cost his party votes.
Can He Recover?
Possibly. But it depends on factors outside of his control. If Labour gets a grip on immigration, many Reform UK voters might offer them support. If the Tories elect a right-wing leader, they might win back some support.
What Next for Reform UK?
Right now, they’re a minor voice within parliament. They have public support, but it won’t translate into constitutional power. They need to be a sensible party and win serious, more comprehensive support. They’ll only do that without outrageous views and PR disasters.
And Farage?
Farage needs to adapt to his new role – he’s no longer a media star; he’s an MP. He has constituents to represent. The chance is, he’ll hate it.
Sobering Reality for Reform UK
They’ll spin this as a success, winning so many votes. They’ll know deep down that it doesn’t mean much. They’re a minor party, and they’re yet to be taken seriously. Ambitions about leading the right have taken a severe hit.
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