The Liberal Democrats are to unleash a strong campaign in the blue wall—the moderate Tory vote in the South of England. Around 2 million leaflets will be dropped through letterboxes, aiming to give disenfranchised Tory voters a political home.
Lib Dems and Tories – An Uneasy Relationship
It wasn’t too long ago that the Liberal Democrats and Tories became bedfellows following the 2010 General Election. While this helped secure the Conservatives’ power, it did significant damage to the Liberal Democrats.
Changes in Tory Perception
While it damaged the Liberal Democrats in some quarters, it made them more palatable to the centre-right Tories. The working relationship formed between the two parties changed the perception of the Liberal Democrats to many on the right.
Disenfranchised Tories Without a Political Home
Recently, disenfranchised Tory voters had a real dilemma. Many can’t stomach a vote for Labour, and the Greens felt like a wasted vote. They don’t want to vote for Sunak, and Reform is just too far right.
A Legitimate Alternative Vote
Faced with those choices, the Liberal Democrats are a legitimate alternative vote. To the Europhile Tories, the Liberal Democrats’ policies on Europe are friendly, and politically, they’re not a bitter enemy, sitting slightly left of centre in the political spectrum.
Lib Dem Strategists Know This
The Lib Dems will deploy digital and print media hard and early to win over voters, especially young voters in the South. They’re targeting Labour voters, using the line that they’re better placed to remove incumbent Tories.
High Profile Tories Targeted
Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt and Gillian Keegan are all big name Tories who are going to be targeted in the election. Gove stepping down makes the job in Surrey Heath significantly easier now.
Conservative Record Has Done the Hard Work
There’s hope within the Lib Dems that an abysmal 14 years in government will soften up the high-profile Tory MPs and make them an easier target. Previously untouchable MPs will now have to campaign knowing they’ve not delivered when given the chance.
Local Election Results Provide Hope
Positive results for the Liberal Democrats in the Local Elections earlier in the year will give them hope that their strategy will work. They won 104 new council seats and gained control over another 2 councils in the blue wall in early May.
Voters Had Enough of Tories
Ed Davey theorised that the voters “have had enough of being taken for granted and being let down”. The results make it difficult to argue with his assessment.
Lib Dem Strategy Also Aimed at Labour
The campaign’s messaging is also aimed at Labour. Some of the Lib Dem ads’ graphics will show a bar chart explaining how close they are to the Tories. The hope is that they’ll be seen as the ones best positioned to topple them in blue wall seats.
No Vote Dilution
The plan is to convince the Labour Party not to commit time, effort, and resources to seats where there’s a better chance of the Lib Dems beating the Tories than Labour. This will prevent a vote split that might keep the Tories in power.
Labour Voters Recruited
A Lib Dem source told the Guardian: “Several cabinet ministers are vulnerable, but to deliver a Portillo moment we need Labour supporters to lend us their support as they have in four record-breaking byelection wins.”
Tactical Voting Against a Common Political Enemy
The source continued: “We know these opening weeks of the campaign will be critical, which is why we are aiming to reach as many voters as possible in top marginal seats where Labour can’t win but we can.”
Tories Stepping Down, Making the Job Easier
The Lib Dems had identified the seats held by former Tory cabinet ministers John Redwood in Wokingham and Greg Clark in Tunbridge Wells as targets. Still, both recently announced their intention to step down.
Lib Dems Seeking to Regain Trust
For many years, the Liberal Democrats were viewed as a non-threat, so they were the natural home for disenfranchised voters from either side. Aligning with the Tories in the coalition damaged their reputation, and it has taken a while to rehabilitate it.
Tactical Shifts at HQ
In the previous election, they hoped their strong European stance would win them a large vote share, but the results showed the opposite, with them returning their worst results in a long time.
Concentrated Effort in Small Seats
The new plan is to tactically pick off seats in a hope of boosting MP numbers and giving them a larger voice in Westminster. The political landscape has shifted significantly since 2010, and enough time has passed for the Lib Dems to be seen as a centre vote once more.
Declining Tories Will Likely Help
In the early polls, there’s a suggestion that the Lib Dems aren’t doing any better than before. Still, social media commentary suggests that the moderate Tories might vote for them over Sunak, which will help.
Expect a Good Performance From the Lib Dems
There are currently 15 Liberal Democrats MPs. By 5th July, expect this number to be greater. If they get their campaign right, a good number of those blue-wall Tory seats will fall into Liberal Democrats’ hands.
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