Amongst the media frenzy surrounding the Farage announcement, one other body will benefit the most. Read on to find out why.
The Election Is a Two Horse Race
Whilst we have a multi-party system in the UK, we’ve essentially got a choice between two. On occasion, there has been a coalition, but throughout history, Labour or the Conservatives have largely been in power.
Tactical Voting Shifts Political Sands
Tactic voting will help a particular party’s chances in several seats across the country. The Lib Dems are using this strategy effectively in this election, and it could see them win many Tory-held seats.
Deals Between Parties Helps
There’s also a situation where two similar parties will work together (either officially or unofficially) to improve their chances. In 2019, for example, UKIP agreed not to compete with the Tories to improve the chances of a Tory victory.
Farage, the Tories Worst Nightmare
In the case of Nigel Farage, his right-wing political agenda is exactly what the Tories didn’t want. The right of the Tory party is already frustrated enough with the failure of Brexit and immigration control.
Populist Politics Tempts Floating Voters
Rishi Sunak could do it without dealing with Nigel Farage, reminding disenfranchised Tory voters about the lack of progress on immigration and the failure of the Brexit project.
Polling Heading in a Clear Direction
For Sunak, the polls make for dreadful reading. The Tories have slipped from a voting intention of 55% down to 21% in the latest figures. Reform UK has gone from 1% to 15% and appears to be climbing further.
The ‘Farage Effect’ Will Come into Play
The ace up the Reform UK sleeve is the return of Nigel Farage to the election running. Despite never winning a UK parliamentary election, there’s no better time for him to stand.
Hand-Picked Seat to Start With
Farage will run for parliament in Clacton, a leave-voting constituency with an older population. These two are key because polling shows the older generation is more likely to be right-wing and oppose immigration.
Farage Runs on Immigration and Little Else
In terms of policy, Farage is a broken record. Brexit and immigration, on a permanent loop. Few take anything else he says seriously, but that doesn’t matter. What will win him a seat isn’t his visionary plans for the UK – it’ll be a promise to keep boats out of the UK and the UK out of Europe.
Why Will This Benefit Labour?
A celebrity politician appealing to the right wing significantly reduces the natural Tory vote. Those Tories who supported the failed Rwanda scheme will trust Farage to get the job done, so they’ll give him their vote.
Farage Offers Profile to Reform
Having Farage at the forefront of Reform will tempt voters to vote his way. Before Farage took full leadership, the party wasn’t seen as serious. Now, they have a high-profile leader, which will likely change perception.
Reform UK Gives Tories Something to Think About
With a new home for the right wing, the Tories have a decision to make—do they move to the right to try and hold onto the right-leaning members of the party, or do they shift to the middle, distancing themselves from Farage’s divisive policies?
Rocks and Hard Places
Suppose the Tory party moves significantly to the right. In that case, they risk alienating the moderate Tories and losing their votes to the Lib Dems. It’s already happening, so it’ll become an even bigger problem.
Shift to the Centre?
Suppose they shift to the centre and relax their stance on immigration and Brexit. In that case, they will lose the right-wing Tories who consider immigration and Brexit two of the country’s most important issues.
Lesser of Two Evils
Elections are generally won from the centre ground, so the Tories might be best served occupying the centre and losing the right wing for a while. They’ll likely drift back to the Tories when they realise Reform UK will never be an election winner.
Indecision Is a Killer
In the meantime, Labour and the Lib Dems will closely monitor Farage and the Tories. Every right-wing, anti-immigration statement he makes is another success for the centre ground.
Disproportionate Attention on Farage
As a celebrity politician, Farage will occupy much of the media attention. He’ll do what he has always done – court this as much as possible and use the platform to make statements and promises he knows he’ll never have to deliver.
Farage Will Expose Tory Failings
With everyone, he’ll expose more of the Tory government’s failings and tempt more disenfranchised voters to the right.
Sunak Likely to Pander
Throughout his time as leader of the Tory party, Sunak has made several concessions to the right, so we can expect no difference this time. He’ll move the party to the right, but it’ll be too late. The right-wing vote will have gone, and the centre will vote for Lib Dems.
Starmer Secretly Celebrating
As both the Lib Dems and Reform UK pose no real threat to the Labour Party, Keir Starmer will be secretly delighted to see Nigel Farage back on the political scene because all it’ll do is weaken his main rival, making his victory a formality.
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