Senior diplomats have warned that a potential Labour government’s aspirations for closer ties with the EU post-Brexit face formidable challenges. Here’s the full story.
Prospective Labour Government
In a sign of just how seriously the British establishment is taking the prospect of an incoming Labour government led by Keir Starmer, senior diplomats, including former British ambassadors and the UK’s last EU commissioner, have lined up to offer him advice.
Smoothing Out Trade
These experts warned that while Labour may aim to smooth out trade barriers and enhance cooperation, the EU’s stance will likely be stringent and pragmatic following years of bad blood after the Brexit negotiations.
Uncompromising Negotiating Style
Lord Darroch, the British ambassador to the EU and the US, has been particularly vocal about the EU’s uncompromising negotiating style.
“Hard-Nosed Negotiator”
Darroch, whose diplomatic career lasted over 40 years, warned Starmer in an interview with the Telegraph, “The Commission is an extremely hard-nosed negotiator and they pride themselves on it.”
“The EU Has Moved on From Brexit”
“The EU has moved on from Brexit. There are plenty of issues around Europe. And what happens next with the Brits really doesn’t make the top ten. They expect Labour to be basically more pro-European but they also expect Labour to be extremely cautious on Europe [..] we shouldn’t expect any free gifts.”
More Than Goodwill
Labour’s expected pro-European stance might be needed to ease negotiations. Lord Darroch and Sir Julian King, the UK’s last EU commissioner, agree that Labour will need more than just goodwill to secure favourable terms.
“Stop Fighting the Last War”
King stated, “Labour have to be ready for a really nitty gritty, difficult discussion because just being nice isn’t going to cut it, so you have to go beyond that. But both sides need to stop fighting the last war.”
2026 Brexit Review
A significant point of contention will be the review of the Brexit trade deal set for 2026. Labour has expressed a desire to renegotiate this agreement, but early signs from the European Commission indicate they are unwilling to make substantial changes.
Tired of Brexit
Many of the EU’s diplomats are tired of discussing Brexit, and many believe that the UK would need to approach any negotiations in good faith after what the EU sees as disgraced former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s era of bridge burning.
Offering Advice
The former ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, also offered Starmer some advice should he become the UK’s next Prime Minister and need to start negotiations with the EU.
“It Works Very Well for Them”
Rogers stated, “Some in Labour tend greatly to underestimate the difficulties it will face. The EU is pretty happy with the Trade and Cooperation Agreement as it is. It works very well for them.”
Veterinary Deal
One of Sir Keir Starmer’s goals is securing a veterinary deal to reduce border checks between Britain and Northern Ireland, smoothing trade with the EU.
Significant Hurdles
However, this ambition faces significant hurdles. Brussels is likely to insist that the UK align with EU plant and animal health rules and continue membership of the European Court of Justice.
Not a “Rule Taker”
This presents a dilemma for Labour, which has declared it will not be a “rule-taker,” though this may just be to lull ardent Brexiteers into a false sense of security, so they’d be willing to lend Labour their vote.
Foreign Policy
One topic on which Labour is likely to have an easier time negotiating with the EU is foreign policy and security cooperation, on which the EU and the UK are much closer aligned, particularly in light of new threats, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Success More Likely
Darroch advised that success in those talks would be much more likely, stating that the EU “recognise that we have been leading players in Ukraine, that we have effective, well equipped armed forces, and a global foreign policy, so we bring something to the table.”
Balancing Act
Despite what might seem like some good news for Labour, a key challenge awaiting them in government will be balancing the desire to align with EU rules in specific sectors while retaining the freedom to diverge in others.
“British Cherry Picking”
Sir Ivan Rogers is sceptical of this approach, thinking that European leaders would view it as nothing more than “the latest glorious version of British cherry picking.”
Significant Benefits
Despite warnings from some of the UK’s longest-serving diplomats, the potential for a Labour government to forge closer post-Brexit could bring significant benefits if successful.
Many Bridges to Rebuild
Though any Labour government will have much catching up to do and many bridges to rebuild, there are opportunities for progress, particularly in foreign policy and security.
Brexit Fatigue
However, with many in the UK and the EU facing Brexit fatigue and neither side looking to rehash the Brexit negotiations, Labour will need to be careful to focus on domestic issues while not alienating what remains, despite Brexit, the UK’s largest trading partner.
Uncertain Future
It remains to be seen whether Keir Starmer’s Labour will be able to manage the delicate balancing act required in the UK’s future dealings with the EU.
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